王振华和新城控股还能飞多远

  • 日期:07-22
  • 点击:(1409)


How far can Xincheng Holdings fly?

The threshold of 100 billion housing enterprises is high every year, and the list is changing year by year. In 2018, it was definitely a bumper year for Shanghai-based Xincheng Holdings. For the first time, this housing company has entered the top ten, with sales exceeding 220 billion. This data even left Longhu, Huaxia Happiness and other old-fashioned housing companies far behind.

2b2199fd3d92401d8b023e882092a2cf

New Town Holdings has just passed a bumper year

On March 8, 2019, Xincheng Holdings released its 2018 annual report. The company's annual operating income was 54.133 billion yuan, an increase of 33.58% over the same period last year. At the same time, debt has surged by hundreds of billions a year. Under this circumstance, the company lowered its 2019 performance target. Wang Zhenhua, the boss, said that the annual contract sales amount will reach 270 billion yuan, an increase of 22.17% compared with 2018.

Earlier, some media reported that the internal performance target of New Town Holdings in 2019 was 300 billion yuan. It is worth mentioning that in 2017 and 2018, the sales growth rate of Xincheng Holding exceeded 70%. At present, most of the land reserves of Xincheng Holding are concentrated in the third- and fourth-tier cities. The impaired risk of impaired risks, rising financing costs and surge in liabilities caused by the rapid increase of self-sustaining properties bring many uncertainties to its future operations. 2019, can New Town Holdings continue its rapid growth in 2018?

Big increase in revenue in two-wheel drive mode

From the disclosure of the annual report, the data of Xincheng Holdings is indeed very beautiful.

xxDuring the reporting period, the company's annual operating income was 54.133 billion yuan, an increase of 33.58% year-on-year, of which residential sales revenue was 29.284 billion yuan, commercial complex sales were 21.554 billion yuan, and property rental and management income was 2.213 billion yuan, corresponding to the company's three major Main business: residential, commercial-oriented commercial property, and Wuyue Plaza, which is mainly self-sustained, accounted for 54.1%, 38.82%, and 4.09% of revenue, respectively. As a development company that deepens the third- and fourth-tier cities, the sales of Newtown Holdings’ real estate bull market, which was marked by the monetization of the 3rd and 4th sheds in 2016, finally ushered in the settlement harvest season this year.

0907e6615d554d9ea7de16d93eb30705

It is worth noting that property rental income has grown rapidly and its revenue share has increased year by year, as shown in the above chart. By the end of 2018, the total number of Wuyue Plaza, which has been opened and operated by Xincheng Holdings nationwide, has reached 42. In just 18 years, 19 new ones have been opened. It is estimated that 22 new projects will be opened in 2019. The annual rental and management fee income will be 21.16. 100 million yuan, an increase of 107.4%. The two-wheel drive revenue model of “City Real Estate + Commercial” in New Town Holdings will continue for several years, and the proportion of property rental income will gradually expand.

Is it a blessing or a curse?

Overall, considering the company's land acquisition in 2017 and 2018, respectively, the growth rate of 138.2% and 40.7%, respectively, the overall size of the new town holding TOP10 for the first time is expected to continue to climb in the next few years.

It is worth noting that the inventory turnover rate of Xincheng Holdings in 2018 is only 0.31, which is the lowest level since the company's listing. This is mainly because the company's land acquisition has been strong in recent years, and the inventory and construction inventories have increased, resulting in a decline in inventory turnover. This can be seen from the company's book advance receipts (in 2018, the subject is changed to contract liabilities), the contractual liabilities at the end of 2018 reached 118.231 billion yuan, about twice the revenue.

xxe6a5c1a498fb4045bb706d3dc286918e

In terms of land bank, the company's land bank is mainly distributed in the third- and fourth-tier cities with the Yangtze River Delta as the core. According to the statistics of Minsheng Securities in the first half of 2018, the new land holdings of Xincheng Holding accounted for 84% of the third and fourth lines.

In terms of land acquisition, the company added a total of 164 new land reserves for the whole year, with a total construction area of 47.73 million square meters, of which 19.4 million square meters were added to the commercial complex project, and the average floor price of land acquisition was 2,330 yuan/square meter. The amount of land is 111.2 billion yuan (the data of Kerry is 88.38 billion yuan), which is 3.25% higher than that of 2017's 107.7 billion yuan. The growth rate has slowed down remarkably. The land sales accounted for 50% of the sales.

6f85a41a64474bbb97d49bf5d5ec6c20

The new city holding cooperation land acquisition project has increased significantly. Among the new projects, the Changshu Shanghu brothel project in Changshu City has the smallest proportion of equity. The equity ratio is only 10.01%. Among the 164 new projects, the equity is 100%. There are only 7 projects, and the proportion of projects with less than 50% equity is as high as 28%. By the end of 2018, minority shareholders' equity and their proportions have rebounded significantly.

As the project is mainly concentrated in the third- and fourth-tier cities, with the end of the monetization bonus of the third- and fourth-tier cities, and the fall of the hometown of the Spring Festival in 2019, the new city holding a large number of land reserves on the 3rd and 4th lines is a blessing. It is still unknown.

Debt surges by 100 billion a year

Along with the big move, it is the scale of the debt that New Town Holdings is rapidly climbing. As of the end of 2018, the total liabilities of Xincheng Holding were 279.362 billion yuan, an increase of 77.32% compared with 157.545 billion yuan at the end of 2017; although the asset-liability ratio declined slightly, it was still as high as 84.57%.

xx在新城控股的负债中,短期借款为22.7亿元,同比增长202.67%;长期借款约236.69亿元,同比增长123.7%对此,新城控股给出的解释是,公司土地储备增长较快,对融资需求较高。

的确,融资需求较高的新城控股2018年进行了多笔融资,包括债券,票据以及ABS产品等多种形式。年报显示,新城控股2018全年筹资活动产生的现金流量净额358.9亿,较2017年年的189.7亿增长了89.2%。

易居研究院智库中心总监严跃进认为,融资对房地产企业的扩张来说是利好,但同时会加大负债的压力和成本,后续如何降低成本也是此类企业需要考虑的一个内容。

融资成本上升,整体财务较为稳健

2018年度末,公司融资余额为633.73亿元,加权平均融资成本年化利率为6.47%。较2017年的5.32%,2018年上半年的5.75%明显上升。

在公司的有息负债中,短期借款22.7亿元,一年内到期的非流动负债107.49亿元,长期借款236.69亿元,应付债券266.85亿元。公司账面现金454.09亿元,足够覆盖短期债务,公司资产负债率84.57%,同比下降1.3百分点,净负债率为49.2%,较上年下降18个百分点,整体杠杆率已较低。公司目前整体财务较为稳健,经营活动现金流净额近几年相对前几年要好。

e248a89635ef4ac2865eb9ccc198921c

XX据华创证券统计,2018年,新城控股通过中期票据,永续中期票据,有针对性的债务融资工具,超短期融资券等多种融资工具共募集资金79亿元。并完成了房屋终端资产支持证券和公司的发行。债券,融资总额55.5亿元;和海外美元债务募集资金13亿美元。该公司目前拥有充足的账面资本,低杠杆率和低整体债务风险。

积极削减2019年的销售目标

e96ca0a10ad64e1b9273a57291e1f783

王振华能在多长时间内领导新城举办?

新城控股董事长王振华在绩效会议上承认:“监管政策带来了一些压力。公司降低了目标增长率。目前提出的2700亿是基于5000亿的价值。根据计算率55%,应该被认为是相对稳定的。“